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Old 05-12-2017, 07:47 AM   #121
NotJLB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rjw1991A1 View Post
Now, back to the lake. Looks like still releasing 13,800 cfs through the gates, but they have cut the generation back to two units for an additional 5900. TR still hovering around that 929.
19000-22000 cfs total

12MAY2017 0800 928.91
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Old 05-12-2017, 10:24 AM   #122
rjw1991A1
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Sure been doing a good job of stocking Taneycomo with fish not always common in that lake. The daughter of a friend caught her first smallmouth bass the other day. At Branson Landing!!!!
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Voted Branson's Best Trout Fisherman
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Old 05-16-2017, 02:48 PM   #123
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16may2017 1500 927.59

With the amount of release being reduced, the drop will be slower now. Maybe like a foot a week.

I had originally guessed sometime in June before our docks would be connected to land again.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-16-2017 at 08:24 PM.
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Old 05-17-2017, 11:17 AM   #124
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WARNING!!!!!

Lakewise, we're not out of the woods yet, both literally and figuratively.

Beaver Lake is still just a foot under Flood Stage, with very little being released, so very little being done to make room there.

TRL greatly reduced it's release, and lowering it can only be described as snail's pace at this point. It is more than 10 feet over normal pool, and only 3 1/2 feet from Flood Stage.

There's a reason why TRL release has been curtailed . . .

. . . Bull Shoals no longer has that 30 foot, or even that 15 foot, cushion it had a month ago. It is now 30 feet over normal pool and just 2 1/2 feet from Flood Stage.

ATTENTION: Bull Shoals is currently releasing water from the flood pool.

Right now we are at a much more dangerous point than a month ago, before the rain, when the lakes had some cushion. There is no cushion anywhere right now.

So, don't put your guard down.

One significant act of nature, and we're not just right back to where we were two weeks ago. We're at a much worse point. If 30 days ago the levels were where they are now, it would have been the 100 year flood, and that auxillary spillway would have gotten a serious workout, leading to disastrous consequences below the Table Rock dam.

Add another factor, that we're now into lake season, so a lot more people will be on them.

You can betcha there's a bunch of crossed fingers, and prayers.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-17-2017 at 11:40 AM.
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Old 05-18-2017, 06:59 AM   #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NotJLB View Post
Top Flood Pool: 1130.0

16MAY2017 2000 1128.72
18MAY2017 0700 1128.74

In the three lakes today there is a grand total of just of about 8 feet, combined, below flood stage.

As we've seen many times, that is just one day of heavy rain.

It seems to me that there is a lack of of public awareness to this very dangerous predicament, for good reason.


Hush!
Seen maps yesterday predicting 3"~4" for SE KS today and tomorrow. That's not SW MO or NW AR but should it drift that direction....
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Old 05-18-2017, 07:39 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by jap114 View Post
Seen maps yesterday predicting 3"~4" for SE KS today and tomorrow. That's not SW MO or NW AR but should it drift that direction....
Pretty much why the crossed fingers and prayers.

Nice day today, I think I'll go wading.

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Old 05-18-2017, 08:30 AM   #127
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What I am trying to say, I guess, is that there are some things that the public perception of which would tend to put them at ease when they should not be.

For instance, the "Low Water Warning" of February 2, 2017, my response to which was "No, not low enough." Unfortunately that proved to be prophetic.

In this thread, you can read my "contemporaneous memos" as to why that was.

Now, this week, the announcement is that release from TRL has been curtailed, with no further explanation.

The public perception of that announcement would be that the public can relax, the danger is over, folks can return to clean up their flood plain homes, folks have time to get all their flood-damaged personal property hauled away, and those still living in tents can concentrate on getting FEMA to help them.

I posted the truth of our current situation, the real reason why release from TRL has been curtailed, on the "announcement thread", and it was deleted.

The truth is that release from TRL has been curtailed because that 30-foot cushion in Bull Shoals is no longer there, not because the danger has past.

The truth is that there is virtually no room for any more rain in any of the lakes, the worst situation we've been in this year.

The facts lead where they may.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-18-2017 at 08:56 AM.
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Old 05-18-2017, 09:30 AM   #128
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
631 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

. . . . . . .
LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017
. . . . . .
Roughly, we are going with around 1-3 inches of rainfall with this
system, although some areas may see less, and if training of
storms can occur, some locations more. The heavy rain potential on
top of high water tables from the recent flooding rains earlier in
the month will likely lead to some additional flooding along area
streams, rivers, creeks and low lying flood prone areas. However,
the flooding is not expected to be anywhere near what we had a
couple of weeks ago.
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Old 05-19-2017, 06:27 AM   #129
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We were spared last night.

3" storm total in the Springfield radar loop, but not in our watershed.

5" in the Topeka area.

Noisy squall line going through right now, but more bark than bite.

More on the way . . . just depends on the amount of precip.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-19-2017 at 06:36 AM.
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Old 05-19-2017, 06:39 AM   #130
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Last night's T-Storms and all the local Tornado warnings only produced 0.11" of rain in our little gauge.

A mild T-Storm going on right now but unaccompanied by the warnings and high winds but NWS Springfield has issued flash flood "watch" for Barry, Lawrence and Stone Counties thru Sat. 5-20.

Very noticeable yesterday while mowing that there was actually a fair amount of dust being blown about by the mowers (surprise, surprise !) so maybe our soil can absorb some of this precip. without instantly producing heavy run-off.

926.87 msl at 0700 5-19.
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Old 05-19-2017, 09:50 AM   #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billj598 View Post
Last night's T-Storms and all the local Tornado warnings only produced 0.11" of rain in our little gauge.
Wow . . . highly calibrated gauge!
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Old 05-19-2017, 09:51 AM   #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoseyWales2 View Post
I really love this posting as I can evaluate the lakes from afar and envision what they look like. It appears to me they go up and down as a bottom line. Hah
Not much down lately.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:40 AM   #133
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I dumped 1/2" from last night.

NWS Springfield:

With potentially two more rounds of rain affecting the region,
will go ahead and keep the flash flood watch going over our
western counties and have included Barry/Stone/Lawrence counties.


Severe weather predicted for north of I-44, with a possibility of some south of I-44.
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Old 05-19-2017, 07:23 PM   #134
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This could be the night.

Lotsa nasty-looking stuff, tracking more to Springfield and north than to Branson, but it extends way past Wichita Falls, so stuff further down now could be further south when it gets here.

6"-8" totals in large areas in OK, and still coming down. Lotsa training.

Nasty stuff.

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Old 05-20-2017, 06:20 AM   #135
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We actually got spared. Instead of the system training over us, it has slid to the east. Where it trained, there has been as much 15".

3" in our gauge, and the ditches are running.

TRL is 4 feet under floodstage. Beaver is less than a foot. Bull Shoals is less than 3 feet.

Water is being released on to Bull Shoals, and Bull Shoals release is 26000 cfs.

The James at Galena has turned up 3 feet in about seven hours, but is nowhere near the crest it will hit later today. Gauge height at both Springfield and Galena is heading straight up. Well over floodstage in Springfield.

It looks like for now TRL release is matching what's coming in, but more will be coming in shortly.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-20-2017 at 07:03 AM.
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