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Old 05-18-2017, 07:59 AM   #91
jap114
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Location: Whitewater, KS / Lampe MO
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NotJLB View Post
Top Flood Pool: 1130.0

16MAY2017 2000 1128.72
18MAY2017 0700 1128.74

In the three lakes today there is a grand total of just of about 8 feet, combined, below flood stage.

As we've seen many times, that is just one day of heavy rain.

It seems to me that there is a lack of of public awareness to this very dangerous predicament, for good reason.


Hush!
Seen maps yesterday predicting 3"~4" for SE KS today and tomorrow. That's not SW MO or NW AR but should it drift that direction....
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Old 05-18-2017, 09:30 AM   #92
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What I am trying to say, I guess, is that there are some things that the public perception of which would tend to put them at ease when they should not be.

For instance, the "Low Water Warning" of February 2, 2017, my response to which was "No, not low enough." Unfortunately that proved to be prophetic.

In this thread, you can read my "contemporaneous memos" as to why that was.

Now, this week, the announcement is that release from TRL has been curtailed, with no further explanation.

The public perception of that announcement would be that the public can relax, the danger is over, folks can return to clean up their flood plain homes, folks have time to get all their flood-damaged personal property hauled away, and those still living in tents can concentrate on getting FEMA to help them.

I posted the truth of our current situation, the real reason why release from TRL has been curtailed, on the "announcement thread", and it was deleted.

The truth is that release from TRL has been curtailed because that 30-foot cushion in Bull Shoals is no longer there, not because the danger has past.

The truth is that there is virtually no room for any more rain in any of the lakes, the worst situation we've been in this year.

The facts lead where they may.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-18-2017 at 09:56 AM.
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Old 05-18-2017, 10:30 AM   #93
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
631 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

. . . . . . .
LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017
. . . . . .
Roughly, we are going with around 1-3 inches of rainfall with this
system, although some areas may see less, and if training of
storms can occur, some locations more. The heavy rain potential on
top of high water tables from the recent flooding rains earlier in
the month will likely lead to some additional flooding along area
streams, rivers, creeks and low lying flood prone areas. However,
the flooding is not expected to be anywhere near what we had a
couple of weeks ago.
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Old 05-19-2017, 07:27 AM   #94
NotJLB
 
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We were spared last night.

3" storm total in the Springfield radar loop, but not in our watershed.

5" in the Topeka area.

Noisy squall line going through right now, but more bark than bite.

More on the way . . . just depends on the amount of precip.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-19-2017 at 07:36 AM.
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Old 05-19-2017, 07:39 AM   #95
billj598
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Last night's T-Storms and all the local Tornado warnings only produced 0.11" of rain in our little gauge.

A mild T-Storm going on right now but unaccompanied by the warnings and high winds but NWS Springfield has issued flash flood "watch" for Barry, Lawrence and Stone Counties thru Sat. 5-20.

Very noticeable yesterday while mowing that there was actually a fair amount of dust being blown about by the mowers (surprise, surprise !) so maybe our soil can absorb some of this precip. without instantly producing heavy run-off.

926.87 msl at 0700 5-19.
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Old 05-19-2017, 10:50 AM   #96
NotJLB
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billj598 View Post
Last night's T-Storms and all the local Tornado warnings only produced 0.11" of rain in our little gauge.
Wow . . . highly calibrated gauge!
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Old 05-19-2017, 12:40 PM   #97
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I dumped 1/2" from last night.

NWS Springfield:

With potentially two more rounds of rain affecting the region,
will go ahead and keep the flash flood watch going over our
western counties and have included Barry/Stone/Lawrence counties.


Severe weather predicted for north of I-44, with a possibility of some south of I-44.
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Old 05-20-2017, 07:20 AM   #98
NotJLB
 
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We actually got spared. Instead of the system training over us, it has slid to the east. Where it trained, there has been as much 15".

3" in our gauge, and the ditches are running.

TRL is 4 feet under floodstage. Beaver is less than a foot. Bull Shoals is less than 3 feet.

Water is being released on to Bull Shoals, and Bull Shoals release is 26000 cfs.

The James at Galena has turned up 3 feet in about seven hours, but is nowhere near the crest it will hit later today. Gauge height at both Springfield and Galena is heading straight up. Well over floodstage in Springfield.

It looks like for now TRL release is matching what's coming in, but more will be coming in shortly.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-20-2017 at 08:03 AM.
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Old 05-20-2017, 08:07 AM   #99
billj598
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NotJLB View Post
Wow . . . highly calibrated gauge!
Davis Vantage Vue electronic weather station....yeah, I'm a "weather geek"

It uses a "tipping spoon" that's like a miniature "see-saw" with little spoons on each end. When the one spoon fills with precip it tips down to empty and that tipping motion is sensed and recorded. I always record less than nearby neighbors with the good old tubular style rain gauges so it makes me wonder which one is accurate.

2.42 inches since yesterday. Just what we don't need. But at least Bull is now able to discharge water.
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Old 05-20-2017, 08:14 AM   #100
rjw1991A1
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Looks like they will be releasing water into Bull Shoals weather they want to or not.
Quote:
Just been informed that there's a bladder stuck in the down position on the top of Powersite's spill gate. They think it's a airhose that's come off and they can't inflate the bladder. This keeps the level of Taneycomo at it's "normal" level. The bladders are deflated when they want to move more water through the lake at a lower level. Under normal flows, the bladders are inflated to keep it at the high or normal level.

Bull Shoals will have to be dropped quite a bit before this repair happens. When they do the work, they'll have to draw Taney down for the duration of the repair. No telling when this will happen but it won't be for a while (weeks). Until then, Taney will be running a little low and fast. Most people won't even notice the difference.
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Old 05-20-2017, 09:36 AM   #101
sanddunerider
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@NOTJB.... you better hang on, grab your floaties.. Its going to get bad in a big hurry I think..
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Old 05-20-2017, 10:35 AM   #102
NotJLB
 
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We might as well add Taneycomo to the list. Here's the official information on it:


Water Level is measured at the Branson Lakeside RV Park adjacent to the Taneycomo Bridge, in downtown Branson.
- The Power Pool for Lake Taneycomo is 701.3 feet above sea level.
- The waterfront road in the Campground is at 703.8 (an tone will sound on this site, when the level reaches 703.8).
- The Branson Landing waterfront boardwalk is at 705 feet.
- The Branson Landing Boulevard approach to the new Taneycomo Bridge is at 722 feet.
- Branson Landing Boulevard at Main Street is at 730 feet.
- The decks of the Historic Taneycomo Bridge and of the Highway 65 Bridge to Hollister are both at 750 feet.
- The intersection of Main Street and Commercial Street is at 765 feet.


http://www.bransonmo.gov/110/Lake-Level

And here's where it is now:

Most recent instantaneous value: 703.85 05-20-2017 09:45 CDT

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?site_no=07053820
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Old 05-20-2017, 11:13 AM   #103
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The James River has risen 8 feet at Springfield and 4 1/2 feet at Galena in the last 11 hours. To express that relative to TRL, it is at 933.

The Kings River at Berryville has risen 4 feet in the last 11 hours.

Neither has crested.

TRL is 6 feet higher at Galena and 2 feet higher at Beaver than it is at the dam.

Do the math.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-20-2017 at 11:25 AM.
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Old 05-20-2017, 11:36 AM   #104
sanddunerider
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NotJLB View Post
The James River has risen 8 feet at Springfield and 4 1/2 feet at Galena in the last 11 hours. To express that relative to TRL, it is at 933.

The Kings River at Berryville has risen 4 feet in the last 11 hours.

Neither has crested.

TRL is 6 feet higher at Galena and 2 feet higher at Beaver than it is at the dam.

Do the math.
I did the math., looks bad. people better brace themselves.
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Old 05-20-2017, 04:31 PM   #105
NotJLB
 
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James and Kings both running 6 feet high, still headed for TRL.

Beaver's right at flood stage, and rising, releasing into TRL.

TRL 3 1/2 feet from flood stage, and rising.

Taneycomo at 703.96. In the campground a bit.

Bull Shoals 2.4 feet from flood stage, with heavy release.

Next rain forecast:

An upper level low will spread south out of the northern Plains Monday
into Tuesday and will bring some chances for scattered showers and
storms to the area Monday into Tuesday.

Another upper level disturbance will then track across the region next
weekend and could bring additional shower and storm chances to
the area.

Last edited by NotJLB; 05-20-2017 at 04:38 PM.
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