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Old 04-26-2017, 02:38 PM   #31
NotJLB
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WARNING: Falling Lake Levels Prompt Corps To Urge Caution
TheOleSeagull
02-04-2017 08:02 AM
by billj598 Go to last post
- - - - - -

"We're screwed" is a prediction, much like "918" was a prediction when it was 915.67, two days before it was 918.

Given what's in Beaver and what's coming down the James and up the Kings, and given this is not the big one, it'll start tomorrow or Friday, I'll stick with "we're screwed", say before May 1.

It's really pretty simple . . . you add what's coming from Beaver, Kings and James, and subtract what's being released. That's not even taking into account the many smaller sources, like the ditch in front of our house and the three "dry" creeks foaming into our cove right now, and all the other ditches and "dry" creeks over 800 miles of shoreline.

Only not getting an Act of God/Nature can change that.

It's too late
She's gone too far
She's lost the sun
She's come undone

Last edited by NotJLB; 04-26-2017 at 02:59 PM.
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Old 04-26-2017, 05:22 PM   #32
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I'd be happy to be wrong. It would be best for everyone if I am.

But, Ron Hearst just said 5.9" on top of what we've already had.

& that's not counting what's already forecast for next week.

Last edited by NotJLB; 04-26-2017 at 05:31 PM.
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Old 04-27-2017, 07:00 AM   #33
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27APR2017 0700 918.82

and rising a foot every 10 hours.

Right now there's 43,800 cfs coming in from just the Kings and the James, plus a bit more from Beaver, and TRL release is 10,000 cfs.

so . . . .

Last edited by NotJLB; 04-27-2017 at 07:08 AM.
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Old 04-27-2017, 11:28 AM   #34
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Beaver Lake will likely be the first problem. The amount being released into TRL is not enough to stop Beaver from rising, and it is less than 4 feet from flood stage. Plus, the heaviest rainfall, up to 8", is predicted for that watershed.

Right now the James is still flowing into TRL at twice the amount of release, and the Kings at 1 1/2 times the release.

Today I'm busy with post-storm clean-up/pre-storm prep. Nice day to do it.
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Old 04-28-2017, 07:59 AM   #35
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The first round tracked north and had more bark than bite. Less than 1".
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Old 04-28-2017, 10:25 AM   #36
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The bite's on on my brush piles.

So, now I have the dilemma of keeping a mess for our own edification, or sticking with grass-fed burgers.

(Hmm? If the correct spelling is dilemma, I wonder why google autocompletes it as dilemna, at least for me. )
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Old 04-28-2017, 03:52 PM   #37
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The following was added to the WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT ACT OF 2016:

AMENDMENT TO THE RULES COMMITTEE PRINT
FOR H.R. 5303
OFFERED BY MR. LONG OF MISSOURI
At the end of title I, insert the following:
1 SEC. ll. TABLE ROCK LAKE, ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.
2 (a) IN GENERAL.—Notwithstanding any other provi-
3 sion of law, the Secretary—
4 (1) shall include a 60-day public comment pe-
5 riod for a Table Rock Lake Master Plan and Table
6 Rock Lake Shoreline Management Plan revision;
7 and
8 (2) shall not finalize a revision for the Table
9 Rock Lake Master Plan and Table Rock Lake
10 Shoreline Management Plan during the 5-year pe-
11 riod beginning on the date of enactment of this Act.
12 (b) SHORELINE USE PERMITS.—During the period
13 described in subsection (a)(2), the Secretary shall lift or
14 suspend the moratorium on the issuance of new, and modi-
15 fications to existing, shoreline use permits based on the
16 existing Table Rock Lake Master Plan and Table Rock
17 Lake Shoreline Management Plan.
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Old 04-28-2017, 04:33 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NotJLB View Post
The bite's on on my brush piles.

So, now I have the dilemma of keeping a mess for our own edification, or sticking with grass-fed burgers.

(Hmm? If the correct spelling is dilemma, I wonder why google autocompletes it as dilemna, at least for me. )
Fresh crappie fillets or a hamburger?
No question. Here's a hint!
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Old 04-28-2017, 05:17 PM   #39
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goggle-eye
- - - - - -
KY3:
Taneycomo evacuations are underway. Possibility of beating the 2015 record.
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Old 04-29-2017, 07:36 AM   #40
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Wow! It's amazing how accurate the forecasters are and how far in advance. Starting at about 11:00 PM, last night was NASTY. Non-stop lightning and heavy rain.

Beaver is 2 1/2 feet from flood stage. It is being held so that if the heaviest rain occurs in the Table Rock basin, dumping Beaver in, too, doesn't elevate the problem.

But, overnight there was 3"-5" throughout the entire Beaver Lake basin, so it's on the rise and will have to be released pretty soon.

TRL 9APR2017 0700 920.27

and it's on the rise, of course, too. Release is 10,000 cfs.

There is a large area of 3"-5" in the TRL basin, mostly Barry County.

Actually, the 3"-5" area stretches from SW to NE, from Fayetteville/Rogers to Rolla, so that's a HUGE amount of water.

The James River at Galena is 15400 cfs, and rising fast.

The Kings River is not a factor, yet, at 4700 cfs.

Branson's in a brief respite right now, with the current rain tracking to the north, but it extends back to New Mexico.
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Old 04-29-2017, 08:54 AM   #41
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James at Springfield is 4 feet over floodstage and will be over floodstage in Galena shortly.
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Old 04-29-2017, 09:25 AM   #42
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Isn't 920 the "magic number" to increase the release at Table Rock above the 10,900 cfs?
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Old 04-29-2017, 10:16 AM   #43
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Flow at Galena now 19,400 cfs . . . just hit floodstage.

Big area of 6"-8" total from Joplin to Tulsa.
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Old 04-29-2017, 11:45 AM   #44
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Quote:
Water Update:
Weather service is saying the the front developing and moving through the area Joplin to Anderson right now could add 2-3 inches of rain to that area. They're saying this rain will be split between watersheds.

Corps says with the rain on the ground, TR's release is handling what's coming in to Table Rock.

The tone was optimistic that the dams can handle what's coming in unless the front stalls over the watershed and dumps 10 inches of rain on the area which they do not think will happen. It's moving slow but it is moving and trending north a bit.
Just a more optimistic view.
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Old 04-29-2017, 01:02 PM   #45
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"TR's release is handling what's coming in to Table Rock."

Their pants are on fire . . .

Then why's TRL rising a foot every 9 hours?

29APR2017 1300 920.78

Incoming
James: 23,600 cfs
Kings: 5640 cfs
Everywhere else: probably that again (just from our cove )

Discharge
10,000 cfs

dang facts . . . trips you up every time
- - - - - -
Beaver's 2 feet from flood stage right now, so that have to be released soon.
- - - - - -
Did I mention we're screwed?

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