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Old 02-09-2018, 06:11 PM   #16
soxster
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Actually, ya have $90 only if you sell.

Less any fees/commissions.
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Old 02-12-2018, 02:00 PM   #17
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Heard lots of gloom and doom from some analysts early this morning. They don't have much to say right now.
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Old 02-12-2018, 02:25 PM   #18
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Heard lots of gloom and doom from some analysts early this morning.
I did not hear that.

I just looked at the Dow, and it looks like a normal day. Some up. Some down. Trending up.

Here's a nice chart:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1358/dow-...-last-10-years

Drag the cursor along the line. Wallah!!!!

If I could even remotely remember anything from my statistical analysis courses, and be able to do a least squares regression on it, I could probably come up with a fairly straight line, and equation, that started March 9, 2009. Actually, nowadays, all that would be needed is to enter each data point into a program, and that would be done.

The market has generally been increasing since March 9, 2009. Those investing in the market since then, generally speaking, should be doing OK. From March 9, 2009 (when the crash bottomed) until January 20, 2017, the Dow went up 302.8%%, so, depending on their timing, folks did well in the market during that period. There were a couple of glitches, but no crashes.

Since Inauguration Day, 2017, the market has continued that upward trend, and gone up another 24%, with a couple of hiccups.

Generally speaking.

So, the market has been going up since March 9, 2009, without a crash, to where it is now at an all-time high level. There is an understandable uneasiness that something like 2007-2008, where the crash was 60%, is due. There is also a question as to how much gain there is to be had now. The opportunity for gain was much greater at 6500 than at 25000.

Incidentally, the following graph has been going down for almost exactly the same timeframe as the Dow Jones one above has been going up:

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Nine years of economic stability and growth.
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Old 02-12-2018, 07:28 PM   #19
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People panic too much over the drops in the market. I have been guilty of that myself in the past. When one looks at the big picture, if you have been in the market over the past year, you have done very well.
What you say is quite true.
Most of the portfolios I have my nose in did ~30% if you strip out the HY, balanced funds and bonds. The latter did ~14% as a group.
Some of the specialty plays like VIXY w/ option plays were doubles.
The years preceding were very nice as well.
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Old 02-12-2018, 09:24 PM   #20
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Maybe I have just had the wrong financial advisors over the years -- and I have had a few -- and none of them have ever told me when it was time to sell stock and then do something else with the gains I have made.
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Old 02-13-2018, 08:13 AM   #21
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Maybe I have just had the wrong financial advisors over the years -- and I have had a few -- and none of them have ever told me when it was time to sell stock and then do something else with the gains I have made.
Trust your gut.

You know your $$$ plans and needs, and what you can tolerate.

During the last President, the market doubled in three years, and tripled during his term. But, that's really not fair, because he was given a mess to start with.

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Old 02-13-2018, 08:32 AM   #22
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Maybe I have just had the wrong financial advisors over the years -- and I have had a few -- and none of them have ever told me when it was time to sell stock and then do something else with the gains I have made.
Not selling/switching is not necessarily a sin. It is all in the results you are getting. If year after year you are at least making the average for the particular category you might want to leave well enough alone.
What you should look at is how much it costs in various fees to earn that return. The typical advisor makes money by selling you stuff, the more the merrier. The mutual funds he sells stay in business by charging a fee.
All of this is fine and dandy so long as the advisor has
your best interests at heart--but many don't.

The thing is, you can create and maintain a great portfolio almost totally fee free. Over the years it makes a very large difference---and it is quite easy.
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Old 02-13-2018, 08:51 AM   #23
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Not selling/switching is not necessarily a sin. It is all in the results you are getting. If year after year you are at least making the average for the particular category you might want to leave well enough alone.
What you should look at is how much it costs in various fees to earn that return. The typical advisor makes money by selling you stuff, the more the merrier. The mutual funds he sells stay in business by charging a fee.
All of this is fine and dandy so long as the advisor has
your best interests at heart--but many don't.

The thing is, you can create and maintain a great portfolio almost totally fee free. Over the years it makes a very large difference---and it is quite easy.
fees can eat you alive over the course of time.
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Old 02-13-2018, 02:54 PM   #24
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I guess a whistle blower has emerged who is saying the VIX was manipulated which helped along the crash we had last week. Sounds reasonable to me.

Some possible news that could settle the markets down is that the VIX is in backwardation today, meaning the futures contracts are priced lower than the current month.
Seeing that first hand as I attempt to buy the Feb contract and sell the March.
Not working yet.
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Old 02-13-2018, 05:22 PM   #25
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Maybe I have just had the wrong financial advisors over the years -- and I have had a few -- and none of them have ever told me when it was time to sell stock and then do something else with the gains I have made.
Mine doesn't tell me. He just does what he knows best how to do. My adviser isn't a salesman like some. That get a fee every time they buy or sell. He gets a flat percent of my account. So he does not make money by telling, or talking me into doing anything. He makes money by me making money. The more I make, the more he makes.
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Old 02-15-2018, 02:47 PM   #26
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For now, it seems like the damage has been contained, and the market will, hopefully, continue it's 9-year upward run. We are about three weeks from the 9th anniversary of the bottom of the crash.
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Old 02-15-2018, 09:04 PM   #27
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Funny how no one complains when its going up at an astronomical amount. Because the market has slowly manipulated the american people to believe it will never go down or crash. and we buy it every time. however, I do think we are in for a long rise still. America still is great no matter what the world says.
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Old 02-21-2018, 07:28 AM   #28
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Walmart's worst day since 1988 drags down the Dow - Feb. 20, 2018

That's hard to believe when you look at any Walmart down here at 10:00 AM this time of year.
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Old 02-21-2018, 07:58 AM   #29
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Walmart's worst day since 1988 drags down the Dow - Feb. 20, 2018

That's hard to believe when you look at any Walmart down here at 10:00 AM this time of year.
If you don't have your on line game 100%, Amazon is going to crush you. Will they eventually get it figured out, stay tuned Walmart took on the grocery biz and seemed to get that right.
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Old 02-21-2018, 03:46 PM   #30
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down 452 in the last 1 1/2 hour
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